Dividend Inc.

What kind of game is this?

Today, Standard and Poor upgraded Countrywide Financial (CFC) from Strong sell to Sell. What kind of game are these analysts trying to play with us? Does it make sense that something which is so unattractive be worth deeming it less dead that previously noted.

This kind of manipulation by analysts raises my suspicions. Are the analysts fearful that, by painting a negative, but accurate picture, it is going to become a self-fulfilling prophsey? Does Standard and Poor have a vested interested in CFC? The justification given by Standard and Poor analyst Stuart Plesser for raising Countrywide from the dead to near dead is that it has been hammered so much that it couldn't possibly go any lower. Come on!!!!

This leads to unjustified optimism without the necessary proof that things have turned around. We need evidence not an analyst's assurance that it can't possibly get worse. This seems all the more outrages when you consider that some 21 companies in the subprime lending industry have filed bankruptcy at or near a perceived top in the real estate financing market (as opposed to the valuation of real estate itself.)

Continue to wait for the proof before considering this company as worth investing in. Countrywide is still a STRONG SELL.

Standard and Poor rating

Countrywide Financial (CFC)

Ups from 1 STAR (strong sell) to 2 STARS (sell)

Analyst: Stuart Plesser

Countrywide's shares have fallen over 10% year-to-date, in our view leaving only modest downside potential. We are concerned about Countrywide's exposure to the subprime market and the possibility of loans being put back to Countrywide due to higher default rates. We also believe that Countrywide's gain-on-sale margin will fall due to a widening of credit spreads in the securitization market. Finally, we remain cautious about Countrywide's option ARM loans, which comprise over 40% of loans held. We are lowering our target price by $2 to $36, 8.2 times our 2007 EPS estimate of $4.37, a discount to Countrywide's historical average.

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2007/pi20070227_897788.htm?campaign_id=yhoo

Overall Market Direction...

When considering the best stocks to purchase you must also consider the risks to the overall market. What this means is that you need to consider where we are and where we might be going. The ideal reference points to start you analysis from are the previous peaks and troughs in any market you chose to invest in. The farther back you can observe the better.

I have decided to review the previous market cycle top that occurred from Jan. 1966 and ended around Jan. 1982 to demonstrate the power of the market cycles. The chart below from "The Wall Street Waltz" by Forbes Columnist Kenneth Fisher shows the Dow on an inflation-adjusted basis. This chart shows how, after inflation, the market moved sideways or down from Jan. 1966 to Jan. 1982.

As any cycle goes there is a point that there is an ultimate high or low. The best we can do as market observers and investors is to guesstimate where the bottom might be. Since the stock market has run on a 16-year cycle for the last 100 years it is safe to say that the stock market will hit it's ultimate bottom between 2008 to 2016.

This forecast doesn't seem very upbeat, I know. However, it is important to keep in mind that this will help you to choose your investments wisely in the coming years. Companies that have a consistent history of paying dividends are definitely going to make the difference in your investment performance.

Imagine if you bought stocks at the peak of the market in 1966 or 1972. If you had, the biggest stocks for that time would have broke even on your investment in a short period of time (3 to 5 years.) That is why I recommend that you read the article titled "The Nifty Fifty Revisited" by Jeremy Siegel. Siegel studied the top companies performance assuming that you bought at the market peak. It is no coincident that a majority of the companies studied by Siegel were dividend-paying stocks that can still be found in the current Mergent Dividend Achiever list.

If you chose to invest in stocks then knowing the market's history should serve you well. For those who bought the largest income paying stocks, from '66 to '72 and held on, they were richly rewarded.

Informative Financial Resources

Investment Myth Number 2...

Myth #2: Because a person is young, they have time on their hands and therefore, can afford to take outsized risks to achieve greater potential returns.

This thesis is based on the assumption that, if you’re wrong about your investment choices (lose all/majority of invested capital) then you’ll be able to make up money lost at a later time.

Yes, you’ll definitely have a chance to make up for the loss later on down the road. However, by the time you get to the point of “down the road” you’ll have lost the one thing that you could never get back and that is time.

During the time that you’ve erroronously invested your funds (you believe otherwise at the time) you’ve lost the opportunity to compound your investment with dividend paying stocks, CDs, bonds, real estate or any other income producing investment. You end up carrying all the risk with little to show in the way of reward as you finally and ultimately give in to the reality of your current investment choices.

Investment Reading List

The Nifty Fifty Revisited by Jeremy Siegel
Relative Dividend Yield- Anthony Spare
Dividend Connection- Geraldine Weiss
Single Best Investment- Lowell Miller
Dividends Don't Lie by Geraldine Weiss
100 Minds that Made the Market by Kenneth Fisher
A Treasury of Wall Street Wisdom- Harry Schultz
ABC of Stock Speculation- S.A. Nelson
Against the Gods- Peter Bernstein
Bear Markets- Harry Schultz
Beating the Dow by Michael O’Higgins
Dow 3000- Richard Shulman & Thomas Blamer
Dow Theory Today- Richard Russell
Dow Theory- Robert Rhea
General Semantics of Wall Street- John Magee
Investment Madness- John Nofsinger
The Great Crash- John Kenneth Galbraith
The Intelligent Investor- Benjamin Graham
The Stock Market Barometer- William Peter Hamilton
The Ultimate Dividend Playbook-Josh Peters

Labels

Dividend Links

Research: Helmerich and Payne at $23.03

Today’s dividend stock research is on Helmerich and Payne (symbol: HP). HP is among the oldest oil drillers that has had the ability to survive due to its prudent management.

HP is now selling 6.72% above it’s 52-week low. According to Standard & Poor’s stock report, HP sports a Price-to-Earnings ratio (P/E) of 10, which is well below its 10-year average of 17. This presents an opportunity to buy at or near the lowest price relative to historical earnings.

Imagine keeping a company profitable while at the same time rewarding investors for their patience. The executive team at HP has managed to increase its dividend every year for the last 28 years. This implies that the management team knows exactly how to run a company in a volatile industry.

If we were to look back 28 years ago, we would find that the Oil & Gas drilling sector experienced tremendous growth due to the OPEC oil cartel in the late 1970’s. The cartel forced major oil companies to seek oil supplies from non-traditional regions of the world. This meant significant growth in oil services drillers who built oil platforms and oil rigs that could be easily be built anywhere around the world.

However, as the oil cartel lost its grip on the price of oil, drilling companies had already over-committed themselves by borrowing excessively to meet anticipated demand that never materialize and flooded the market with too many rigs. The drilling industry went into a nose-dive which left only a few companies standing, HP being among them.

HP has fallen 42% from the 52-week high of $40.24, which implies that significant opportunity exists for upside potential. HP moved to the $40 range mainly due to the fact that the price of oil rose so much. Now that the price of oil has fallen from a high of $79 to the around $60 there exists the feeling that oil will continue to fall.

A decline in the price of oil is the most likely risk facing this stock. Many commodity analysts, such as the famed Jim Roger, believe that we are in the early stages of a commodity bull market. And while we might not be at the peak of this bull run there will be many brutal dips to the downside between now the next market top. Since oil often moves in unison with political and economic turmoil I expect that a decline of at least 33%-66% is waiting in the wings before rebounding to its ultimate top.

What happened to the dividends?

Q. In 1896 the Dow Jones Industrial Index Average (DJIA) was at 40. At the end of 1998, the DJIA was 9181. the DJIA is a price-weighted average. Dividends are omitted from the index. What would the DJIA average be at the end of 1998 if the dividends were reinvested each year?

The answer will follow the latest on Dividend Achievers at or near their 52-week lows.

Stocks within 5% of their 52 week low:

Atmos Energy (ATO)
Bandag Inc. (BDG)
Popular Inc. (BPOP)
Anhueser Busch (BUD)
Conagra (CAG)
Community Bank System (CBU)
Commerce Group (CGI)
Forest City Ent. (FCY)
FNB Corp. (FNB)
First Oak Brook (FOBB)
Frischs Restaurants (FRS)
General Electric (GE)
Hersey (HSY)
Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)
Sara Lee (SRE)
Sysco Corp. (SYY)
Tootsie Roll (TR)
Wrigley, WM (WWY)

If dividends were reinvested in the DJIA, the average would have been 652,230 at the end of 1998.

(source: Roger Clarke and Meir Statman. 2000. "The DJIA Crossed 652,230." Journal of Portfolio Management. Winter 89-93.)

The Power of Dividends

This is an excerpt from the great Dow Theorist Richard Russell. I hope you find this instructive on the power of dividends. Enjoy.

Steve Leuthhold and his group turn out some of the best research obtainable (612-332-1567). In his latest report, Steve notes that the annual compound growth of stocks, with dividends reinvested, is 10.8%. But excluding dividends, the long-term total return drops to 5.9%. Thus, 45% of the annual total return over the last 100 years has come from dividends and the reinvestment of those dividends.

Then Steve notes that the “difference between 5.9% compounded over 100 years and 10.8% compounded is GIGANTIC.” This sounds incredible, but here’s the difference: $1,000 invested at 5.9% in 1900 grew to $319,694. But $1,000 invested at 10.8% grew to $29,471,614.

Dividends don’t matter? Don’t tell that to someone who understands compounding. Market action plays a large part in how and when companies pay dividends. When stocks are going up and producing capital gains, it is said that companies don’t have to pay dividends because corporations, in their wisdom, can make better use of the money than simply paying it out in taxable dividends. But when times are hard and stocks are down, it is said that dividends are valuable because even if your stock is declining or going nowhere, the dividend is something tangible, the dividend is income, and in hard times income is extremely important and in many cases “a life saver.”

Leuthhold notes that in 1978 the S&P [500] was priced at less than 10 times earnings while providing a yield of better than 6%. Investors in 1978 were still traumatized by the 1973-74 bear market collapse, and they wanted value and the wanted a return on their investments. In 1978 66.5% of the stocks on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange), the Amex and the Nasdaq paid dividends. In 1998, however, only 20.7% of stocks on those exchanges paid dividends.

Today the percentage has dropped below 20%, largely because the great majority of IPOs and new issues pay no dividends. And as Steve Leuthhold says, “How can they pay dividends? Then don’t have any earnings.”

Russell, Richard. Dow Theory Letters. "Dividends and Total Return." September 27, 2000. p.5. http://www.dowtheoryletters.com

Feb. 9th: HNI Corp. and Carlisle Co. Inc.

Biggest percentage decliner of the day: HNI Corp. (HNI)

HNI manufactures office furniture and hearth products. This company has increased its dividend every year for 16 years. There is little explanation for sell off in the stock other than “selling on the news.”

HNI has seen a 40.51% appreciation in the stock price in the last 52 weeks. It is possible that this stock is at a point of exhaustion.

Biggest percentage gainer of the day: Carlisle Co. Inc.

Carlisle Co. was up 8.89% today. This tops off a 27% increase in the last year. Carlisle Co. manufactures rubber products for roofing, construction, trucking and aircraft industries. Carlisle has increased its dividend every year for 28 years.

Feb. 8th: Pier One and Protective Life

Biggest percentage decliner of the day: Pier One (PIR)

Pier One looks like it is up against the ropes. Today it fell 6.95% and was the largest decliner among the Dividend Achievers. Due to decreased cashflow, earnings and the issuance of new debt the rating agency Standard and Poor’s lowered PIR credit rating.

PIR has a technical support level of $8.50; if the stock falls below this level we could expect PIR to go to $5.25. $5.25 is a major support/resistance level which would hold major significance. PIR has increased its dividend every year for 13 years and has a tangible book value of $7 per share.

Biggest percentage gainer of the day: Protective Life (PL)

Protective Life was up 7.60% on an increase of net income. PL has also announced that it will purchase the stock of five insurance companies from JP Morgan Chase. PL has reached a new multi-year high with the most recent increase. In 1990, PL was at $2.40, today it trades at $49.01 an increase of 2000%.

PL has increased its dividend every year for 15 years. Any Dividend Achiever that sells insurance should be considered for every portfolio. $35 billion investor Warren Buffett made his start by investing in insurance companies.

Feb. 7th: Hillenbrand and Nucor

Biggest percentage decliner of the day: Nucor (NUE)

Today Nucor fell 6.5% due to the recent speculation of consolidation of the steel industry. Keep in mind that today's decline is against the previous day's outsized gains. The recent speculation is primarily due to Mittal Steel's (MT) recent bid to acquire Arcelor. Mittal is the world's largest steel producer and getting larger by the minute. Naturally, when the world's largest steel producer attempts to acquire the world's second largest steel producer the impression is that there is room for more consolidation.

In the U.S., monolithic steel producers have fallen to the wayside as smaller, better managed "boutique" producers have moved forward. My feeling is that US regulators will step in to block any acquisition from a "foreign" company. If this is the case, I feel that domestic producers will possibly jump the gun and initiate a wave of domestic acquisition that could lead to larger and potentially poorly managed companies. LTV and Bethlehem Steel are steel companies that had faced bankruptcy due to inefficient operations.

I don't think that immediately after Mittal's most recent target (provided that it is successful) will mean more acquisitions in the near term. This will put the speculator, hopeful of another big move upward, at the bad end of the deal...in the short term. Nucor is one of those better managed steel companies. NUE has increased its dividend for 32 consecutive years in a row. NUE has a tangible book value of $21.67 per share.

Biggest percentage gainer of the day: Hillenbrand Industries (HB)

Hillenbrand’s price increased 6.65% due to higher earnings. This company’s stock price has fallen from it’s high of $70 in 2004. Hillenbrand has increased its dividend every year for 34 consecutive years.

Myth Bustin' #1

Myth #1: Companies that pay a dividend misallocate funds that could be used to generate new revenue. The lack of new revenue will keep the stocks price low over the short and long term.

This is the most fascinating myth that exists about dividend paying companies. The theory seemingly makes sense yet after cursory examination, the truth will out. Look at the 1-year performance of these select Mergent Dividend Achievers:

Badger Meter (BMI) 96%
Caterpillar (CAT) 66%
Berkley (BER) 53%
Aqua America (WTR) 59%
Archer-Daniel-Midlands (ADM) 70%
Franklin Resources (BEN) 52%
Fuller (FUL) 55%
Granite Construction (GVA) 92%
Harleysville Group (HGIC) 50%
Helemerich & Payne (HP) 114%
La-Z-Boy (LZB) 67%
Legg Mason (LG) 90%
Martin Marietta (MLM) 70%
McGrath (MGRC) 54%
Meridian Biosciences (VIVO) 172%
Nordson (NDSN) 52%
Nucor (NUE) 92%
Raven Industries (RAVN) 93%
Questar (STR) 63%
AO Smith (AOS) 80%
State Auto Financial (STFC) 56%
Schulman (SHLM) 60%
SWS Group (SWS) 65%
Tennant Co. (TNC) 58%
Vulcan Materials (VLM) 53%
West Pharma Services (WST) 60%

This list is for 1-year performance from Feb. 7, 2005 to Feb. 6, 2006. This does not include the dividend that was paid by these companies over this 1 year period.

As you’ll notice companies with 10%, 20%, 30% and 40% returns were not included. However, if they were included during this time frame I would have had to add 219 companies to this list. If anyone were to complain about receiving only 10% percent in one year with significantly reduced risk then investing in stocks may not be the place to be.

Feb. 6th: Talbots and Vulcan Materials

Biggest percentage decliner of the day: Talbots (TLB)

Talbots fell 3.41% on the confirmation that they would acquire apparel retailer J. Jill Group. TLB will pay over $24 per share for J. Jill Group. Sometimes the best way to gauge the quality of a buyout offer is how the purchase is conducted. In this case the purchase of J. Jill was an all cash offer. Cash offers are far superior to stock & cash and debt offers. All cash offers represents the acquiring company's confidence after having done the necessary due diligence.

TLB has increased it's dividend 10 consecutive years in a row at an annualized compounded rate of 16.83%. TLB also has a tangible book value of $8.82 per share. Although TLB is within striking distance of it's 52 week low there is the likelihood that the stock could fall to the support level of $20 per share as the integration of J. Jill takes place.

Biggest percentage gainer of the day: Vulcan Materials (VMC)

Vulcan traded up 7.95% on a stronger earnings report Feb 1st and a proposed takeover today of Lafarge North America Inc. by France's Lafarge Group. All companies are in the concrete business.
VMC has increased it’s dividend every year for 12 consecutive years in a row. VMC also has a tangible book value of $13.65 per share. Morningstar indicates that this company is fairly priced at $72 per share; well below the current trading price of $80.42.

Feb. 3rd: Rohm & Haas and Commerce Group

Biggest percentage decliner of the day: Rohm & Haas

Speciality materials producer Rohm & Haas (ROH) fell 5.4% on Friday. Much of the decline was due to downgrades in the stock by JPMorgan and UBS. This was an instance of “buy the rumor and sell the fact.” Even though this company had an increase in earnings, sales and revenue it was not enough to satiate the appetite of investors and brokers. Concerns related to higher commodity prices are affecting the outlook for future profitability.

ROH has had a 27-year track record for consecutive dividend increases at 7.29% compounded annual rate. Morningstar estimates fair value for ROH at $44.00 per share with a buy price of $33 per share. Valueline indicates that ROH is undervalued when the price is 11x cashflow or below. Full year 2004 cashflow was $4.30 and estimated 2005 cashflow was $5.05. This implies a $47.30-$55.55 range for undervaluation. Unfortunately, ROH hasn't traded above 11x cashflow since 2002 and has typically fallen in price once achieving the 11x cashflow mark. 1999 and 1993 were the other times that ROH has hit 11x cashflow. This might be used to as an indication of when to sell.

Biggest percentage gainer of the day: Commerce Group

Insurer Commerce Group (CGI) was up 11% on better than expected earnings. The company beat expectations by $0.32 per share. Prior to this most recent rise the stock was registering new 52-week lows on a daily basis. According to Morningstar, the company's price-to-book value range in the last 10 years has been as high as 1.8x and as low as 1.2x. If this company has reversed it's fortunes then the potential upside could take the stock price up to $67.38 based on book value of $37.43.

Commerce Group has increased its dividend every year for the last ten years in a row. What is exceptional about the dividend increase, but not expected to last, is the compounded rate of increase. CGI has had a 24.20% compounded growth rate of their dividend. Amazing!

At a Glance

Today's big movers have interesting stories to tell. Harleysville National (HNBC) and National Penn (NPBC) both had large declines after their Jan. 31st breakouts. There has been no news posted about these companies and the speculation is that a merger or buyout is in the works.

Helmerich and Payne (HP) is being whip-sawed by the gyrations of the oil and gas sector. HP has been a favorite of mine simply because of it's ability to increase it's dividend for the last 28 years. This is no small feat for an oil services driller that survived the collapse in the sector in the 1980's. Check out HP's spin-off unit Cimarex (XEC) for more quality management in the oil sector.

Legg Mason increased it's earnings over 500% in the last quarter however, much of the gain was from the sale of a unit to Citigroup. Operating earnings were only $0.10 above last year's quarterly earnings...nothing to sneeze at but definitely a stark contrast to the newspaper headlines of HUGE EARNINGS POSTED.

Big Movers of the day:

Harleysville National fell 12% after rising 24% on Jan. 31st.
National Penn Bancshares down 4% after rising 12% on Jan. 31st.
Helmerich and Payne fell 4% due to a drop in natural gas and oil prices.
Legg Mason up 4.55% on earnings increased 5x.
Martin Marietta Materials rose 7.4% in sympathy with Vulcan Materials.
Vulcan Materials up 7.48% on increased earnings.
Sonoco Products up 7.75% rise in 4 quarter earnings.

As the old adage goes "buy low and sell high," but how many of us actually do it? Somebody has to do it so why can't it be you. The following list shows companies that have fallen within 5% of their respective 52 week low. 52 week lows aren't necessarily the times to buy however, it is a great time to start doing your research on these companies. One of these must be at or below fair market valuation.

Stocks within 5% of their 52 week low:

Telephone Data
Tootsie Roll
3M
Allstate Insurance
Anhueser-Busch
Atmos Energy
Bard Inc.
Comerica Inc.
Commerce Group
Conagra
FNB Corp
Frisch Restaurants
General Electric
Heinz Co.
Hershey
Johnson & Johnson
Kimberly Clark
Popular Inc.
Sky Financial Group
Unitil Corp
W.M. Wrigley