When considering the best stocks to purchase you must also consider the risks to the overall market. What this means is that you need to consider where we are and where we might be going. The ideal reference points to start you analysis from are the previous peaks and troughs in any market you chose to invest in. The farther back you can observe the better.
I have decided to review the previous market cycle top that occurred from Jan. 1966 and ended around Jan. 1982 to demonstrate the power of the market cycles. The chart below from "The Wall Street Waltz" by Forbes Columnist Kenneth Fisher shows the Dow on an inflation-adjusted basis. This chart shows how, after inflation, the market moved sideways or down from Jan. 1966 to Jan. 1982.
As any cycle goes there is a point that there is an ultimate high or low. The best we can do as market observers and investors is to guesstimate where the bottom might be. Since the stock market has run on a 16-year cycle for the last 100 years it is safe to say that the stock market will hit it's ultimate bottom between 2008 to 2016.
This forecast doesn't seem very upbeat, I know. However, it is important to keep in mind that this will help you to choose your investments wisely in the coming years. Companies that have a consistent history of paying dividends are definitely going to make the difference in your investment performance.
Imagine if you bought stocks at the peak of the market in 1966 or 1972. If you had, the biggest stocks for that time would have broke even on your investment in a short period of time (3 to 5 years.) That is why I recommend that you read the article titled "The Nifty Fifty Revisited" by Jeremy Siegel. Siegel studied the top companies performance assuming that you bought at the market peak. It is no coincident that a majority of the companies studied by Siegel were dividend-paying stocks that can still be found in the current Mergent Dividend Achiever list.
If you chose to invest in stocks then knowing the market's history should serve you well. For those who bought the largest income paying stocks, from '66 to '72 and held on, they were richly rewarded.
I have decided to review the previous market cycle top that occurred from Jan. 1966 and ended around Jan. 1982 to demonstrate the power of the market cycles. The chart below from "The Wall Street Waltz" by Forbes Columnist Kenneth Fisher shows the Dow on an inflation-adjusted basis. This chart shows how, after inflation, the market moved sideways or down from Jan. 1966 to Jan. 1982.
As any cycle goes there is a point that there is an ultimate high or low. The best we can do as market observers and investors is to guesstimate where the bottom might be. Since the stock market has run on a 16-year cycle for the last 100 years it is safe to say that the stock market will hit it's ultimate bottom between 2008 to 2016.
This forecast doesn't seem very upbeat, I know. However, it is important to keep in mind that this will help you to choose your investments wisely in the coming years. Companies that have a consistent history of paying dividends are definitely going to make the difference in your investment performance.
Imagine if you bought stocks at the peak of the market in 1966 or 1972. If you had, the biggest stocks for that time would have broke even on your investment in a short period of time (3 to 5 years.) That is why I recommend that you read the article titled "The Nifty Fifty Revisited" by Jeremy Siegel. Siegel studied the top companies performance assuming that you bought at the market peak. It is no coincident that a majority of the companies studied by Siegel were dividend-paying stocks that can still be found in the current Mergent Dividend Achiever list.
If you chose to invest in stocks then knowing the market's history should serve you well. For those who bought the largest income paying stocks, from '66 to '72 and held on, they were richly rewarded.
