As we approach the 2nd year of our 18 year bear market, it is worth comparing the unemployment rate between this bear market and the last most comparable bear market. It is my opinion that the last comparable bear market was the period from 1966 to 1982. If our economy and stock market has a further free fall then I'd have to adjust my comparison to that of the period from 1929 to 1954.
When we look at the Bureau Labor of Statistics data on unemployment we see that both 2007 and 1966 share the characteristic that the respective periods were not all time lows for unemployment. In the case of 1966, the absolute low was in mid 1953 while the absolute low for the period preceding 2007 was in late 2000. The implications of this concept are that thus far everything that we're experiencing in this bear market is going according to planned regardless of the efforts of policy makers.
Next, I'd like to do a side-by-side comparison of unemployment from the low in unemployment in 1953 to the period of the peak in the stock market in 1966. Likewise we will compare the amount of change in unemployment from 2000 to the current date. Then we will observe the commonalities and contrasts between the two periods.
When we look at the Bureau Labor of Statistics data on unemployment we see that both 2007 and 1966 share the characteristic that the respective periods were not all time lows for unemployment. In the case of 1966, the absolute low was in mid 1953 while the absolute low for the period preceding 2007 was in late 2000. The implications of this concept are that thus far everything that we're experiencing in this bear market is going according to planned regardless of the efforts of policy makers.
Next, I'd like to do a side-by-side comparison of unemployment from the low in unemployment in 1953 to the period of the peak in the stock market in 1966. Likewise we will compare the amount of change in unemployment from 2000 to the current date. Then we will observe the commonalities and contrasts between the two periods.
At the lowest levels in 2000, the rate of unemployment has increase by 113% as of Feb. 2009. During the same period of time from the low in unemployment in 1952, the unemployment rate increased 141% in the equal amount of time until 1961.
