Walgreen Co. (WAG): Sell at the Market

It is now time to recommend that Walgreen Co. (WAG) be sold at the market. The stock has severely underperformed since the research recommendation was issued on September 24, 2008. It is highly recommended that anyone who bought the stock based on my research should re-read the posting. It is hoped that the stock was researched and purchased well below the initiation price.

WAG has been on a steady rise since hitting a technical double bottom on March 9th 2009. At the current rate, WAG could easily breach the $39 level in the next few weeks. WAG is up an astounding 59% from the low in March. In the pursuit of "seeking fair profits" the returns that this stock has provided within the last 338 days say that it is necessary to consider alternative opportunities.

WAG was recommended when it was trading at $31. As of August 27, 2009, WAG was quoted at $33.83. This equals a compounded return of 11.03% in 11 months. Conservatively, this would equal approximately 11.91% return. Selling this stock now also generates a return of 6.23x greater than the amount of the dividend yield if the stock was held for that extra month.

As I have indicated in the purposes and function of this site, the goal is to:

• maximize the annual yield of each trade.
• reduce time between buying and selling of each stock.
• exceed the annual yield of government guaranteed alternatives in each trade.

Sell recommendations are intended to deal with the short term reality of the market. The tracking of the Sell recommendations are the worst case scenario if you happen to have bought a stock at the time the research recommendation was made (please avoid making this mistake.) I aim for mediocrity in my returns, therefore I am happy with 9-12% annual gains. However, since codifying my approach to investing in 2005, I have had annual returns of 14% and above every year since.

It is always recommended that when selling a stock, one should not place stop orders, limit orders or orders after hours. This leaves the seller in the position of being vulnerable to the whims of the market makers. Instead, place your sell orders only as a market order during market hours. Some would complain that a market order during market hours might leave some profits on the table. However, I would rather leave some money on the table rather than have it taken away from me by the trades that are placed by institutions and market makers. Touc.

Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.

Sell Bard Corp. (BCR) at the Market

It is now time to recommend that Bard Corp (BCR) be sold at the market. The stock has performed moderately since the research recommendation was issued on April 23, 2009. It is highly recommended that anyone who bought the stock based on my research should re-read the posting. It is hoped that the stock was researched and purchased well below the initiation price.

BCR has formed a powerful accumulation base which could indicate that the stock is headed much higher. BCR is among many of the medical device manufacturers that are being underpriced due to the debate about healthcare reform. In the pursuit of "seeking fair profits" the returns that this stock has provided within the last 126 days say that it is necessary to consider alternative opportunities.

BCR was recommended when it was trading at $71.28. As of August 26, 2009, BCR was quoted at $78.31. This equals a compounded return of 10.11% in a little over 4 months. Conservatively, this would equal approximately 29% return. Selling this stock now also generates a return of 10.64x greater than the amount of the dividend yield if the stock was held for a whole year.

As I have indicated in the purposes and function of this site, the goal is to:

• maximize the annual yield of each trade.
• reduce time between buying and selling of each stock.
• exceed the annual yield of government guaranteed alternatives in each trade.

Research recommendations are intended to be a starting point for investigating a quality company at a reasonable price. It is hoped that after doing the background research you can buy the stock at a lower price. Ideally the stock should be held in a tax deferred account and should not consist of less than 20% of your holdings. Personally, I prefer holding only 2-3 stocks at a time.

Sell recommendations are intended to deal with the short term reality of the market. The tracking of the Sell recommendations are the worst case scenario if you happen to have bought a stock at the time the research recommendation was made (please avoid making this mistake.) I aim for mediocrity in my returns, therefore I am happy with 9-12% annual gains. However, since codifying my approach to investing in 2005, I have had annual returns of 14% and above every year since.

It is always recommended that when selling a stock, one should not place an order after hours or when the market is closed. This leaves the seller in the position of being vulnerable to the whims of the market makers. Instead, place your sell orders only as a market order during market hours. Some would complain that a market order during market hours might leave some profits on the table. However, I would rather leave some money on the table rather than have it taken away from me by the trades that are placed by institutions and market makers. Touc.

Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.

Sell Sysco (SYY) at the Market

It is now time to recommend that Sysco (SYY) be sold at the market. The stock has underperformed since the research recommendation was issued on December 17, 2008. It is highly recommended that anyone who bought the stock based on my research should re-read the posting. It is hoped that the stock was researched and purchased well below the initiation price.

SYY has formed an upside down head and shoulders pattern which could indicate that the stock is headed much higher. SYY is the ultimate hedge against inflation and it may go as high as my first target price of $27.58. In the pursuit of "seeking fair profits" the returns that this stock has provided within the last 253 days say that it is necessary to consider alternative opportunities.

SYY was recommended when it was trading at $23.60. As of August 26, 2009, SYY was quoted at $25.34. This equals a compounded return of 10.85% in a little over 8 months. Conservatively, on an annualized basis this would equal approximately 15.65% return. Selling this stock now also generates a return 2.59x greater than the amount of the dividend yield if the stock was held for a whole year.

As I have indicated in the purposes and function of this site, the goal is to:

• maximize the annual yield of each trade.
• reduce time between buying and selling of each stock.
• exceed the annual yield of government guaranteed alternatives in each trade.

Research recommendations are intended to be a starting point for investigating a quality company at a reasonable price. It is hoped that after doing the background research you can buy the stock at a lower price. Ideally the stock should be held in a tax deferred account and should not consist of less than 20% of your holdings. Personally, I prefer holding only 2-3 stocks at a time.

Sell recommendations are intended to deal with the short term reality of the market. The tracking of the Sell recommendations are the worst case scenario if you happen to have bought a stock at the time the research recommendation was made (please avoid making this mistake.) I aim for mediocrity in my returns, therefore I am happy with 9-12% annual gains. However, since codifying my approach to investing in 2005, I have had annual returns of 14% and above every year since.

It is always recommended that when selling a stock, one should not place an order after hours or when the market is closed. This leaves the seller in the position of being vulnerable to the whims of the market makers. Instead, place your sell orders only as a market order during market hours. Some would complain that a market order during market hours might leave some profits on the table. However, I would rather leave some money on the table rather than have it taken away from me by the trades that are placed by institutions and market makers. Touc.

Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.

Industrial Production Index

In my previous discussion of the Industrial Production Index (IPI), I clearly made a mistake in my interpretation of the “price” action of the index. On March 16, 2009, I said that if the IPI fell below 97.8399 then we would face the equivalent of economic “dark ages.”

In looking at the movement of the index, I dismissed the peak of 95.3271 on May 1998 and the trough of July 1998 as a significant technical support/resistance level for the index. This appears to be a critical oversight since the June 2009 low in the IPI at 95.4571 appears to have created a temporary support level. Even though the difference between 97.8399 and 95.4571 is only 2.32%, I feel it is necessary to identify this issue in my analysis as a potential learning opportunity.


Now for the shameless self-promotion, in my January 27, 2009 analysis of the IPI index, I said, "Based on this most recent move the IPI is expected to decline at least to the December 2001 level of 97.8399." This observation was about as accurate as you could get. Additionally, I said, “…we're in for at least another six months of declines in the IPI.” This assessment was off by 1 month which isn't bad. As mentioned before, the IPI hit a temporary bottom in June 2009. Some folks who snicker at the thought of technical analysis being applied to an economic indicator that isn’t even a critical component of the U.S. economy have every right to question the method. However, the fruitless effort, in this instance, “seems” to have been useful.

Finally, let’s look at where I think the IPI index is possibly going from here. In the 90-year history of the reporting of the IPI, there has been only one declining period in which the index had temporarily gone up and then down more than once (fake out.) We’ve already had one fake out of the index when it sharply rose in October of 2008 and then continued downward. I don’t see (revealing my limitations) this index falling below the current trough of 95.4571 until it does a Dow Theory retrace of at least one, and possibly all three, of the following upside targets:

• 101.1035
• 106.7499
• 112.3963

Implicit in my discussion of the IPI is that we are at a turning point for the economy. Based on the combination of the Dow Theory confirmation of July 23, 2009 and the IPI turning up from the June low, I will have to guess that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is going to proclaim June 2009 as the official end to the recession. The end to this recession will be lackluster and questioned from all corners. Additionally, the stock market will only follow the pattern of a cyclical bull market (bear market rally) within a secular (long term) bear market. I doubt that the general public will agree that the recession is over since jobs will not be as plentiful as the past. However, from the standpoint of an economist the recession is over provided the IPI June low is sustained over an extended period of time.

Again, the IPI index generally lags the stock market by 6 to 9 months. Therefore, the index could continue to rise while the stock market has reversed to the downside. We’ll have to see just how much the most recent trough remains in place.Touc.

Monday's Article:

Dow Theory

Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.

Freddie Mac (FRE) Trading Notes

When it comes to the cornering of a stock there are two kinds, those that fail and those that succeed. The essential element that causes the failure is the inability to get the public to "buy in" to the market action. The movement of Freddie Mac (FRE) today appears to be on the side of those who are behind the cornering of the stock.

Market activity for Freddie Mac (FRE) was off the charts today, rising $0.49 or 66% in the pre-market session on almost 18 million shares and rising another 37% on 391 million in the regular hours of trading. This equals a combined increase, from Friday's closing price of $0.74, of 128%. (pre-market data below)Chart Source: Nasdaq.com

There is a distinction between the price movement of FRE and AIG. Although both are moving on syndicates' pre-market prompting, the FRE cornering of the stock may have the ability to succeed at keeping the price high for an extended period of time. Notice in the chart below that the accumulation/distribution of the stock had gone from the extremely negative low of -319 million (red arrow at point A) to a positive figure (green arrow at point A) based on the activity of today's trading.

Chart Source: Schwab.com

Contrast the movement of FRE's accumulation/distribution with the that of AIG. While both accumulation lines hit their lowest point on July 24th, the day after the Dow Theory bull market confirmation, AIG has not yet broken above the accumulation line (red circle.) Additionally, as AIG has gone up in price the volume has trended down.

Chart Source: Schwab.com

The AIG run does not look "sustainable" over the long term unless the accumulation/distribution improves along with a rising price and rising volume. For traders, it is expected that FRE will have a pullback, however there may be legs on this speculation as compared to AIG.

Because we're in a cyclical bull market within an even larger bear market I would consider these stocks as pure speculation regardless of the "potential" upside. Let's see which of the syndicates that are running these stocks up in pre/post market activity comes out the winner. From what I can tell, the FRE gang is miles ahead of the AIG crew in this race. This should be interesting to watch. Touc.

related articles:

• February 21, 2009

AIG Trading Notes

Today, AIG traded up a whopping 20.46% on volume of 101,064,355 shares. On the surface of it this seems like a resounding vote of confidence for a company that is 80% owned by U.S. taxpayers. However, beneath the surface lies a murky story waiting to be told.

The story waiting to come out is that on Thurday August 6, 2009, AIG had a closing price of $22.53. During "Pre-market" trading Friday August 7th, AIG went from $22.53 to $27.37, a gain of 21.48%. The volume of shares traded during the "Pre-market" was 5,785,607 (after hour thumbnail.)

Once the regular hours of trading began on Friday August 7, 2009 the price of AIG actually fell from the $27.37 pre-market level to finally close at $27.14. Again, the regular hours of trading volume was 101,064,355.

What does all this mean? Over 5 million shares moved the price from $22.53 to $27.37. Once the regular market opened the public battled it out to come to the conclusion that the $27.37 wasn't the right price. Over 100 million only impacted the price by $0.23 lower than what 5 million was able to do by increasing the price over 20%.

My conclusion is that the public has less confidence in the future prospects for this company, and possibly the stock market, than the pre-market participants would have us believe. I also noticed that in after-hours trading the price rose an additional $0.08 on volume of 244,363 shares. Ain't it funny, 244,363 shares can raise the stock $0.08 while 100 million results in a loss of $0.23. The pre-market and after-market traders are gaming the system.

It appears that if you want to be a "trader" then you need to be entering and exiting the market before or after regular market hours. Otherwise, I would be cautious about dealing in this stock and any other stocks that are so easily managed based on so few participants. Conversely, if you're a "long term" investor then be ready to sell on a moments notice using market orders only. If you use a stop order to sell at the price of $27 then it is likely that you could get stopped out at $24 instead of $26.99 or thereabout if the stock trades down in the pre-market on Monday (wouldn't be surprised if this happens.) Touc.

Source:

• Nasdaq Quotes. (Link to AIG quote on NASDAQ system)

Sell Bank of Hawaii (BOH) at the Market

It is now time to recommend that Bank of Hawaii (BOH) be sold at the market. The stock has performed modestly since the research recommendation was issued on January 12, 2009. It is highly recommended that anyone who bought the stock based on my research should re-read the posting. The stock took a huge dive in early March, it is hoped that shares of BOH were bought somewhere below the recommendation price.

From the current level, BOH is likely to continue higher as the current deflationary spiral ends and an inflationary environment begins. If you believe that inflation is coming down the road then the Japanese economy has typically performed better during inflation. Growth in the Japanese economy has typically meant growth in the Hawaiian economy. Additionally, BOH has held up very well in the banking crisis that just past and is poised to reach the $45 level, especially because we just got a Dow Theory cyclical bull market signal (within a larger secular bear market.) In the pursuit of "seeking fair profits" the returns that this stock has provided within the last 207 days say that it is worthwhile considering alternative opportunities.

BOH was recommended when it was trading at $37.76. As of August 6, 2009, BOH was quoted at $40.98. This equals a total return (dividends plus appreciation) of 11.36% in a little over 7 months. Conservatively, on an annualized basis this would equal approximately 19.47% return. Selling this stock now also generates a return 4 times greater than the amount of the dividend yield if the stock was held for a whole year.

It is always recommended that when selling a stock, one should not place an order after hours or when the market is closed. This leaves the seller in the position of being vulnerable to the whims of the market makers. Instead, place your sell orders only as a market order during market hours. Some would complain that a market order during market hours might leave some profits on the table. However, I would rather leave some money on the table rather than have it taken away from me by the trades that are placed by institutions and market makers. Touc.

Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.

After-Hour Conundrum

The first after-hour profile is Applied Material (AMAT). In the screen shot below we see that AMAT has a market capitalization of $18.3 billion. During market hours on August 5th, we see that the stock traded down by 1.51% or $0.21. Over the last 3 months, AMAT has had average daily volume of 21 million shares.

In the screen shot below, we see that in after-hour trading AMAT traded up by exactly $0.21 bringing the price right back to where it started in the beginning of the day. Notice that during the after-hour trading it took only 160,000 shares to offset 12,303,994 shares traded during regular hours. Also notice that four trades equaled 73% of the total after-hour volume.

What I'd like to know is this, who is holding 48,252 worth of AMAT shares valued at $663,465? Why does anyone who owns so many shares try to sell them at a time when they wouldn't likely get the best price available? Who is matching up these trades?

Next up is Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH). Below we see that CTSH traded up by $0.99 on trading volume of 9,503,064. However, during after-hour session we can see that CTSH trades back down by $0.99. It only took 99,202 shares to get the price exactly back to where it started earlier in the day.

Again, notice that someone with 43,700 shares worth $1,468,966 decided that after-hours was the best time to unload the shares. Not to be outdone, someone else with 32,400 shares valued at $1,109,768 feels like getting rid of their shares.

Conclusion

From my experience routing trades to the floor of the NYSE in the mid-90's, these transactions are suspect. After all, who would try to unload so many shares without disrupting the market price. In the case of Cognizant Solutions, the 43,700 shares sold was 44% of all after-hour trading. such a large proportion of trading volume would normally spike the price up or down dramatically. Strangely, there was someone willing to obtain the odd number of shares after-hours. This is a highly unusual transaction for so many shares at a time when the market is so illiquid. In fact, most of the After Hours Activity that I have posted show similar patterns.

My suspicion is that institution(s) are accumulating short/long positions as the price of the stock rises during the regular hours. Once the market closes, the same institution sell/buy the shares to/from themselves or a related party. Additionally, options for the stock could have been purchased, sold or written in anticipation of the expected change in price after-hours. This is definitely something that is worth investigating further to determine how these transactions are being carried out. Not to mention the fact that the shares are rising and falling by exactly the opposite amount that took place during regular market hours.

It is likely that all the data on after-hour trades will be wiped clean for tomorrow's trading. However, I'll be ready with an update of the companies that have an after-hour close that is the exact opposite of the regular hours of trading on my After Hours Activity section. Then you'll be able to verify exactly what I have demonstrated. Touc.

Sources:

• NASDAQ: After Hour Quotes (http://www.nasdaq.com/)
• Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/)

Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.

Sell Matthews International (MATW) at the Market

It is now time to recommend that Matthews International (MATW) be sold at the market. The stock has performed reasonably since the research recommendation was issued on March 31, 2009. It is highly recommended that anyone who bought the stock based on my research should re-read the posting. The stock took a tiny dip in mid-April, however the recommendation was essentially at the low for the stock price. From the current level, MATW is poised to reach the second upside target of $40.77, especially because we just got a Dow Theory cyclical bull market signal (within a larger secular bear market.) In the pursuit of "seeking fair profits" the returns that this stock has provided within the last 126 days say that it is worthwhile considering alternative opportunities .

MATW was recommended when it was trading at $29.04. As of August 3, 2009, MATW was quoted at $31.95. This equals a return of 10.25% in a little over 4 months. Conservatively, on an annualized basis this would equal approximately 29% return. Selling this stock now also generates a return 11 times greater than the amount of the dividend yield if the stock was held for a whole year.

It is always recommended that when selling a stock, one should not place an order after hours or when the market is closed. This leaves the seller in the position of being vulnerable to the whims of the market makers. Instead, place your sell orders only as a market order during market hours. Some would complain that a market order during market hours might leave some profits on the table. However, I would rather leave some money on the table rather than have it taken away from me by the trades that are placed by institutions and market makers. Touc.

Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.