This is a 1-year performance recap based on the most popular stock lists that appear on SeekingAlpha.com. Based on the April 29, 2010, the most popular stock list was generated by Ockham Research's "Caution: Greatly Overvalued Stocks in the News." Because this is only a one year review, we're willing to accept that there may be no relationship in the short term to the potential long term performance. However, we're attempting to determine if the author is on to something in their efforts.
| Company | Symbol | 29-Apr-10 | 28-Apr-11 | Gain/Loss |
| Occidental Petroleum | OXY | $84.68 | $105.13 | 24.15% |
| ArcelorMittal | MT | $39.22 | $36.60 | -6.68% |
| Caterpillar | CAT | $69.28 | $112.64 | 62.59% |
| Johnson Controls | JCI | $33.92 | $41.26 | 21.64% |
| Paccar | PCAR | $47.09 | $53.75 | 14.14% |
| Vornado Realty | VNO | $83.74 | $96.60 | 15.36% |
| Kinder Morgan Energy | KMP | $63.29 | $76.89 | 21.49% |
| Eaton Corp | ETN | $38.47 | $54.59 | 41.90% |
| Fidelity Natl. Info Ser. | FIS | $26.54 | $32.69 | 23.17% |
| Cliffs Nat. Res. | CLF | $63.70 | $96.59 | 51.63% |
| Cree | CREE | $76.00 | $40.46 | -46.76% |
| Eastman Chemical | EMN | $66.89 | $102.93 | 53.88% |
| BorgWarner | BWA | $44.07 | $76.57 | 73.75% |
| Autoliv | ALV | $54.59 | $79.19 | 45.06% |
| MDC | MDC | $36.97 | $29.02 | -21.50% |
| Redwood Trust | RWT | $15.76 | $15.71 | -0.32% |
| Imax Corp | IMAX | $19.72 | $34.24 | 73.63% |
| Permian Basin RT | PBT | $18.32 | $22.06 | 20.41% |
| Average | 25.97% | |||
| S&P 500 | ^GSPC | 1206.78 | 1360.48 | 12.74% |
Based on the total return performance of the list, the average gain was 25.97%. Of the 18 stocks, 77% exceeded the returns of the S&P 500. Additionally, 44% of the stocks exceeded the return of the S&P 500 by 100%. The average gain of this portfolio was twice the S&P 500 index. Had an investor put their money in a money market fund after the sale of the stock or bought an index fund they would have lost a exceptional amount of opportunity to grow their money.
Because Ockham Research stated "Just because a stock is overvalued doesn’t mean that it is due for a slide, but rather we think that it is not an attractive buy candidate and may be ripe for taking profits," we consider that this method failed to provided exceptional returns on the short side or avoid major loses.
See what our NLO Dividend Watch List has done at New Low Observer.
See what our NLO Dividend Watch List has done at New Low Observer.
