More news on AFLAC...

This post contains updated information regarding my research recommendation of Aflac (AFL) on March 9, 2007.

In the April 9, 2007 edition of Forbes magazine, John Rogers advises the purchase of AFL. I promise I didn't get an advanced copy of the magazine. Rogers makes two very interesting points about AFL. Point number one, AFL "has payroll deduction arrangements with employees at 91% of the companies traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange." As Rogers points out, this is a monopoly if there ever was one. Point two, AFL shares "trade at a 21% discount."

John Rogers' opinion carries a lot of weight in my book. I suspect that AFL might be able to fall another 5%-10%. Despite my downside projections the upside reward far exceeds the potential risks.

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Feb. 9th: HNI Corp. and Carlisle Co. Inc.

Biggest percentage decliner of the day: HNI Corp. (HNI)

HNI manufactures office furniture and hearth products. This company has increased its dividend every year for 16 years. There is little explanation for sell off in the stock other than “selling on the news.”

HNI has seen a 40.51% appreciation in the stock price in the last 52 weeks. It is possible that this stock is at a point of exhaustion.


Biggest percentage gainer of the day: Carlisle Co. Inc.

Carlisle Co. was up 8.89% today. This tops off a 27% increase in the last year. Carlisle Co. manufactures rubber products for roofing, construction, trucking and aircraft industries. Carlisle has increased its dividend every year for 28 years.

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Feb. 8th: Pier One and Protective Life

Biggest percentage decliner of the day: Pier One (PIR)

Pier One looks like it is up against the ropes. Today it fell 6.95% and was the largest decliner among the Dividend Achievers. Due to decreased cashflow, earnings and the issuance of new debt the rating agency Standard and Poor’s lowered PIR credit rating.

PIR has a technical support level of $8.50; if the stock falls below this level we could expect PIR to go to $5.25. $5.25 is a major support/resistance level which would hold major significance. PIR has increased its dividend every year for 13 years and has a tangible book value of $7 per share.


Biggest percentage gainer of the day: Protective Life (PL)

Protective Life was up 7.60% on an increase of net income. PL has also announced that it will purchase the stock of five insurance companies from JP Morgan Chase. PL has reached a new multi-year high with the most recent increase. In 1990, PL was at $2.40, today it trades at $49.01 an increase of 2000%.

PL has increased its dividend every year for 15 years. Any Dividend Achiever that sells insurance should be considered for every portfolio. $35 billion investor Warren Buffett made his start by investing in insurance companies.

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Feb. 7th: Hillenbrand and Nucor

Biggest percentage decliner of the day: Nucor (NUE)

Today Nucor fell 6.5% due to the recent speculation of consolidation of the steel industry. Keep in mind that today's decline is against the previous day's outsized gains. The recent speculation is primarily due to Mittal Steel's (MT) recent bid to acquire Arcelor. Mittal is the world's largest steel producer and getting larger by the minute. Naturally, when the world's largest steel producer attempts to acquire the world's second largest steel producer the impression is that there is room for more consolidation.

In the U.S., monolithic steel producers have fallen to the wayside as smaller, better managed "boutique" producers have moved forward. My feeling is that US regulators will step in to block any acquisition from a "foreign" company. If this is the case, I feel that domestic producers will possibly jump the gun and initiate a wave of domestic acquisition that could lead to larger and potentially poorly managed companies. LTV and Bethlehem Steel are steel companies that had faced bankruptcy due to inefficient operations.

I don't think that immediately after Mittal's most recent target (provided that it is successful) will mean more acquisitions in the near term. This will put the speculator, hopeful of another big move upward, at the bad end of the deal...in the short term. Nucor is one of those better managed steel companies. NUE has increased its dividend for 32 consecutive years in a row. NUE has a tangible book value of $21.67 per share.

Biggest percentage gainer of the day: Hillenbrand Industries (HB)

Hillenbrand’s price increased 6.65% due to higher earnings. This company’s stock price has fallen from it’s high of $70 in 2004. Hillenbrand has increased its dividend every year for 34 consecutive years.

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Feb. 6th: Talbots and Vulcan Materials

Biggest percentage decliner of the day: Talbots (TLB)

Talbots fell 3.41% on the confirmation that they would acquire apparel retailer J. Jill Group. TLB will pay over $24 per share for J. Jill Group. Sometimes the best way to gauge the quality of a buyout offer is how the purchase is conducted. In this case the purchase of J. Jill was an all cash offer. Cash offers are far superior to stock & cash and debt offers. All cash offers represents the acquiring company's confidence after having done the necessary due diligence.

TLB has increased it's dividend 10 consecutive years in a row at an annualized compounded rate of 16.83%. TLB also has a tangible book value of $8.82 per share. Although TLB is within striking distance of it's 52 week low there is the likelihood that the stock could fall to the support level of $20 per share as the integration of J. Jill takes place.



Biggest percentage gainer of the day: Vulcan Materials (VMC)

Vulcan traded up 7.95% on a stronger earnings report Feb 1st and a proposed takeover today of Lafarge North America Inc. by France's Lafarge Group. All companies are in the concrete business.
VMC has increased it’s dividend every year for 12 consecutive years in a row. VMC also has a tangible book value of $13.65 per share. Morningstar indicates that this company is fairly priced at $72 per share; well below the current trading price of $80.42.

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Feb. 3rd: Rohm & Haas and Commerce Group

Biggest percentage decliner of the day: Rohm & Haas

Speciality materials producer Rohm & Haas (ROH) fell 5.4% on Friday. Much of the decline was due to downgrades in the stock by JPMorgan and UBS. This was an instance of “buy the rumor and sell the fact.” Even though this company had an increase in earnings, sales and revenue it was not enough to satiate the appetite of investors and brokers. Concerns related to higher commodity prices are affecting the outlook for future profitability.

ROH has had a 27-year track record for consecutive dividend increases at 7.29% compounded annual rate. Morningstar estimates fair value for ROH at $44.00 per share with a buy price of $33 per share. Valueline indicates that ROH is undervalued when the price is 11x cashflow or below. Full year 2004 cashflow was $4.30 and estimated 2005 cashflow was $5.05. This implies a $47.30-$55.55 range for undervaluation. Unfortunately, ROH hasn't traded above 11x cashflow since 2002 and has typically fallen in price once achieving the 11x cashflow mark. 1999 and 1993 were the other times that ROH has hit 11x cashflow. This might be used to as an indication of when to sell.

Biggest percentage gainer of the day: Commerce Group

Insurer Commerce Group (CGI) was up 11% on better than expected earnings. The company beat expectations by $0.32 per share. Prior to this most recent rise the stock was registering new 52-week lows on a daily basis. According to Morningstar, the company's price-to-book value range in the last 10 years has been as high as 1.8x and as low as 1.2x. If this company has reversed it's fortunes then the potential upside could take the stock price up to $67.38 based on book value of $37.43.

Commerce Group has increased its dividend every year for the last ten years in a row. What is exceptional about the dividend increase, but not expected to last, is the compounded rate of increase. CGI has had a 24.20% compounded growth rate of their dividend. Amazing!

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