My previous article on November 26, 2008 had projected that the Industrials were expected to go to the 10,836.11 and the Transports should go to 4126.56 by early May and August respectively. Because both indices have fallen further since that date, I need to update my figures to reflect the upside targets and the approximate timing of the targets.
- Industrial Average: 10,360.02 by late August 2009
- Transport Average: 3,748.40 by mid-October 2009
In the same article that I wrote about the Industrial and Transports, I gave my projections for the gold stock index, the XAU. At that time, using Dow's theory, I said that the gold stock index would go to 136.40 by late February or early March. On March 19, 2009 the XAU index hit 136.53. As of the close of market today the XAU sits at 134. My cycle analysis tells me that the trend for the gold stock index is supposed to go down from here. However, if we're in a bear market rally then we could see the XAU go much higher in the near term. So far, I can only guess that the accuracy of my prediction for the XAU gold index is nothing more than luck. Touc.
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