Dow at 208,210.50 or...

...What the newspaper headlines would have said at the peak back in October of 2007 if the Dow continued at the current pace when it was last trading at the same level back in June 1o, 1997.

This is the best way to determine if we're truly in a bull or bear market. back in June of 1997 when the Dow first crossed the 7539 level it took until April 2, 1998 before it reached the 8986 level. A grand total of 297 days or 4.87 points per day.

We've covered approximately the same number of points, 1381, in a total of 18 days. This averages out to be 76.77 points for each day. If the current rate of gains were applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average back on June 10, 1997, we would have seen the peak in October 2007 at 208,210.50.

Since we're not in a bull market all that we can expect are bear market rallies which consist of violent moves up and painful moves down. A bear market rally can surge up to 50% or more in a matter of months as opposed to the years that it takes for a bull market.

Be mindful of the fact that in bear markets, buying stocks is the financial equivalent of catching falling knives. I expect this rally to be complete on or around late April 2009. Knowing this market, it could end long before or after that time frame.

The revision to my previous bear market rally upside targets are:

• 8943
• 9625
• 10,836.11

The most recent move to the 8934 was very close to the 8943 level but the Dow moved down in yesterday's action. A failure of the index to move strongly through the 8943 level could indicate significant weakness in the market and the economy over the next few weeks. Touc.