Feb. 7th: Hillenbrand and Nucor

Biggest percentage decliner of the day: Nucor (NUE)

Today Nucor fell 6.5% due to the recent speculation of consolidation of the steel industry. Keep in mind that today's decline is against the previous day's outsized gains. The recent speculation is primarily due to Mittal Steel's (MT) recent bid to acquire Arcelor. Mittal is the world's largest steel producer and getting larger by the minute. Naturally, when the world's largest steel producer attempts to acquire the world's second largest steel producer the impression is that there is room for more consolidation.

In the U.S., monolithic steel producers have fallen to the wayside as smaller, better managed "boutique" producers have moved forward. My feeling is that US regulators will step in to block any acquisition from a "foreign" company. If this is the case, I feel that domestic producers will possibly jump the gun and initiate a wave of domestic acquisition that could lead to larger and potentially poorly managed companies. LTV and Bethlehem Steel are steel companies that had faced bankruptcy due to inefficient operations.

I don't think that immediately after Mittal's most recent target (provided that it is successful) will mean more acquisitions in the near term. This will put the speculator, hopeful of another big move upward, at the bad end of the deal...in the short term. Nucor is one of those better managed steel companies. NUE has increased its dividend for 32 consecutive years in a row. NUE has a tangible book value of $21.67 per share.

Biggest percentage gainer of the day: Hillenbrand Industries (HB)

Hillenbrand’s price increased 6.65% due to higher earnings. This company’s stock price has fallen from it’s high of $70 in 2004. Hillenbrand has increased its dividend every year for 34 consecutive years.

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  • Myth Bustin' #1

    Myth #1: Companies that pay a dividend misallocate funds that could be used to generate new revenue. The lack of new revenue will keep the stocks price low over the short and long term.


    This is the most fascinating myth that exists about dividend paying companies. The theory seemingly makes sense yet after cursory examination, the truth will out. Look at the 1-year performance of these select Mergent Dividend Achievers:

    1. Badger Meter (BMI) 96%
    2. Caterpillar (CAT) 66%
    3. Berkley (BER) 53%
    4. Aqua America (WTR) 59%
    5. Archer-Daniel-Midlands (ADM) 70%
    6. Franklin Resources (BEN) 52%
    7. Fuller (FUL) 55%
    8. Granite Construction (GVA) 92%
    9. Harleysville Group (HGIC) 50%
    10. Helemerich & Payne (HP) 114%
    11. La-Z-Boy (LZB) 67%
    12. Legg Mason (LG) 90%
    13. Martin Marietta (MLM) 70%
    14. McGrath (MGRC) 54%
    15. Meridian Biosciences (VIVO) 172%
    16. Nordson (NDSN) 52%
    17. Nucor (NUE) 92%
    18. Raven Industries (RAVN) 93%
    19. Questar (STR) 63%
    20. AO Smith (AOS) 80%
    21. State Auto Financial (STFC) 56%
    22. Schulman (SHLM) 60%
    23. SWS Group (SWS) 65%
    24. Tennant Co. (TNC) 58%
    25. Vulcan Materials (VLM) 53%
    26. West Pharma Services (WST) 60%


    This list is for 1-year performance from Feb. 7, 2005 to Feb. 6, 2006. This does not include the dividend that was paid by these companies over this 1 year period.

    As you’ll notice companies with 10%, 20%, 30% and 40% returns were not included. However, if they were included during this time frame I would have had to add 219 companies to this list. If anyone were to complain about receiving only 10% percent in one year with significantly reduced risk then investing in stocks may not be the place to be.



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  • Feb. 6th: Talbots and Vulcan Materials

    Biggest percentage decliner of the day: Talbots (TLB)

    Talbots fell 3.41% on the confirmation that they would acquire apparel retailer J. Jill Group. TLB will pay over $24 per share for J. Jill Group. Sometimes the best way to gauge the quality of a buyout offer is how the purchase is conducted. In this case the purchase of J. Jill was an all cash offer. Cash offers are far superior to stock & cash and debt offers. All cash offers represents the acquiring company's confidence after having done the necessary due diligence.

    TLB has increased it's dividend 10 consecutive years in a row at an annualized compounded rate of 16.83%. TLB also has a tangible book value of $8.82 per share. Although TLB is within striking distance of it's 52 week low there is the likelihood that the stock could fall to the support level of $20 per share as the integration of J. Jill takes place.



    Biggest percentage gainer of the day: Vulcan Materials (VMC)

    Vulcan traded up 7.95% on a stronger earnings report Feb 1st and a proposed takeover today of Lafarge North America Inc. by France's Lafarge Group. All companies are in the concrete business.
    VMC has increased it’s dividend every year for 12 consecutive years in a row. VMC also has a tangible book value of $13.65 per share. Morningstar indicates that this company is fairly priced at $72 per share; well below the current trading price of $80.42.

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  • Feb. 3rd: Rohm & Haas and Commerce Group

    Biggest percentage decliner of the day: Rohm & Haas

    Speciality materials producer Rohm & Haas (ROH) fell 5.4% on Friday. Much of the decline was due to downgrades in the stock by JPMorgan and UBS. This was an instance of “buy the rumor and sell the fact.” Even though this company had an increase in earnings, sales and revenue it was not enough to satiate the appetite of investors and brokers. Concerns related to higher commodity prices are affecting the outlook for future profitability.

    ROH has had a 27-year track record for consecutive dividend increases at 7.29% compounded annual rate. Morningstar estimates fair value for ROH at $44.00 per share with a buy price of $33 per share. Valueline indicates that ROH is undervalued when the price is 11x cashflow or below. Full year 2004 cashflow was $4.30 and estimated 2005 cashflow was $5.05. This implies a $47.30-$55.55 range for undervaluation. Unfortunately, ROH hasn't traded above 11x cashflow since 2002 and has typically fallen in price once achieving the 11x cashflow mark. 1999 and 1993 were the other times that ROH has hit 11x cashflow. This might be used to as an indication of when to sell.

    Biggest percentage gainer of the day: Commerce Group

    Insurer Commerce Group (CGI) was up 11% on better than expected earnings. The company beat expectations by $0.32 per share. Prior to this most recent rise the stock was registering new 52-week lows on a daily basis. According to Morningstar, the company's price-to-book value range in the last 10 years has been as high as 1.8x and as low as 1.2x. If this company has reversed it's fortunes then the potential upside could take the stock price up to $67.38 based on book value of $37.43.

    Commerce Group has increased its dividend every year for the last ten years in a row. What is exceptional about the dividend increase, but not expected to last, is the compounded rate of increase. CGI has had a 24.20% compounded growth rate of their dividend. Amazing!

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  • At a Glance

    Today's big movers have interesting stories to tell. Harleysville National (HNBC) and National Penn (NPBC) both had large declines after their Jan. 31st breakouts. There has been no news posted about these companies and the speculation is that a merger or buyout is in the works.

    Helmerich and Payne (HP) is being whip-sawed by the gyrations of the oil and gas sector. HP has been a favorite of mine simply because of it's ability to increase it's dividend for the last 28 years. This is no small feat for an oil services driller that survived the collapse in the sector in the 1980's. Check out HP's spin-off unit Cimarex (XEC) for more quality management in the oil sector.

    Legg Mason increased it's earnings over 500% in the last quarter however, much of the gain was from the sale of a unit to Citigroup. Operating earnings were only $0.10 above last year's quarterly earnings...nothing to sneeze at but definitely a stark contrast to the newspaper headlines of HUGE EARNINGS POSTED.

    Big Movers of the day:

    • Harleysville National fell 12% after rising 24% on Jan. 31st.
    • National Penn Bancshares down 4% after rising 12% on Jan. 31st.
    • Helmerich and Payne fell 4% due to a drop in natural gas and oil prices.
    • Legg Mason up 4.55% on earnings increased 5x.
    • Martin Marietta Materials rose 7.4% in sympathy with Vulcan Materials.
    • Vulcan Materials up 7.48% on increased earnings.
    • Sonoco Products up 7.75% rise in 4 quarter earnings.

    As the old adage goes "buy low and sell high," but how many of us actually do it? Somebody has to do it so why can't it be you. The following list shows companies that have fallen within 5% of their respective 52 week low. 52 week lows aren't necessarily the times to buy however, it is a great time to start doing your research on these companies. One of these must be at or below fair market valuation.

    Stocks within 5% of their 52 week low:

    • Telephone Data
    • Tootsie Roll
    • 3M
    • Allstate Insurance
    • Anhueser-Busch
    • Atmos Energy
    • Bard Inc.
    • Comerica Inc.
    • Commerce Group
    • Conagra
    • FNB Corp
    • Frisch Restaurants
    • General Electric
    • Heinz Co.
    • Hershey
    • Johnson & Johnson
    • Kimberly Clark
    • Popular Inc.
    • Sky Financial Group
    • Unitil Corp
    • W.M. Wrigley




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